1 million social and affordable homes needed by 2036 to deal with rental stress

Over one million social and affordable homes are required by 2036 across Australia to address the increasing shortfall - 36,400 social housing properties and 14,800 affordable rental homes per year - according to a recent report by the UNSW City Futures Research Centre and Community Housing Industry Association (CHIA) NSW.

The current deficit of 651,200 social and affordable homes will pass the one-million mark in the next 20 years (1,023,900), a shortfall mainly caused by very little investment in public housing over several decades.

Rental stress, which is determined by the number of households paying 30 per cent or more of their income on rent, is at 14.2 per cent and 10.8 per cent in Greater Sydney and the rest of NSW. The scale of rental stress for people on low and middle incomes means that just 46 per cent of all Australian households who require social housing are actually receiving it.

The recent housing boom and low wage growth have been cited as some of the reasons for high rental stress. The report notes that when rents and house prices increase without a corresponding rise in wages, rental stress will also grow.

The report categorises social and affordable housing needs by sub-region and separates the type of housing needs into two types:

• Social housing – implying higher levels of housing subsidy, rented to those on social security, and includes households in the bottom income quintile for Australia ($400, $800 and $1,000 per week for singles, couples and families respectively) and those who are in private rental stress, combined with homelessness figures.
• Affordable housing – implying lower levels of housing subsidy, and includes households who were assessed as being in housing stress in the second quintile for Australia ($500, $1,250 and $1,750 per week for singles, couples and families respectively).

Social housing in Sydney & NSW

According to the report released this month, there is a current shortfall of 80,800 social housing properties in Greater Sydney and 56,300 across the rest of the NSW. This totals a social housing shortfall in the whole of New South Wales at 137,100. 

The report states that 213,200 social housing home will be needed in NSW by 2036; 141,200 in Great Sydney and 72,000 in the rest of NSW.

Affordable housing in Sydney & New South Wales

There is a current shortfall of 79,400 affordable housing properties across NSW – 55,300 households in Great Sydney, and 24,100 across the rest of New South Wales.

To cover the backlog of unmet need and future need, more than 75,000 affordable homes in Greater Sydney and 27,700 homes across the rest of NSW are needed by 2036, totalling 103,500 affordable housing properties.

The report concludes that one-third of all social and affordable homes needed in Australia by 2036 are needed in New South Wales (316,700).

CHIA NSW Chair, John McKenna, reported on the findings:

“The number of homes that we need is clearly enormous but it can be delivered if all levels of government work together and recognise that subsidised housing is not possible without government subsidy in some form.”

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